James Ashton
I guess so far everything went according to plan. The Royal and Senators missed the playoffs and have the coveted lottery picks to help elevate their respective rebuilds.
Each Conference had runaway winners. In the Lemieux conference the South Esk team with their abundance of super grinding defence smothered teams , timely scoring and physical brutality. Over in Gretzky the Saint John KIngs were on an all time heater. With 5 players over a point per game , the best goalie in the league and the best regular season team in ODBHL history.
With the very first reseeding conferences, the Gretzky Conference was stacked having 4 of the top 5 teams in the league.
Next Years Conferences
South Esk , Moncton, Bathurst , Dorchester and Oromocto
Saint John, Cains River , Miramichi , Albert County and Riverview.
Basically the Melons and Renegade swap spots in the conferences. In the Lemieux conference it will be interesting to see if the teams on the rise (Devils and Bathurst) can make up ground on established teams like South Esk & Moncton. I see more lottery balls in the Senators future.
Saint John and Cains are both like death and taxes, also well represented and consistent. The other 3 teams are worth watching. Do the Renegades figure it out with MacDavid and their younger starter. Do the young Moose take the next steps and learn to play defence for their future starter. What do the Royals have up their sleeve after proclaiming the rebuild is over.
Any who on to the matchups.
South Esk Scotsman (1) vs. Dorchester Devils (4)
What is the biggest equalizer for aggression and defence?
In my mind speed and skill, they can’t mangle what they can’t catch unless they get you after the whistle. That is what will be the biggest factor in the series. When you don’t get that many shots or chances can make them count. I think there are a couple of key players on the Devils that could keep this series close and will have to to make this a series.
Most Important Players : Moritz Seider & Ilya Samsonov - It’s a two for one special. Samsonov will need to stand on his head. The Scotsman are average on offense and will need to remain consistent to win in the playoffs. They want tight checking low shot games. If Samsonov can get hot like last year that could be a damning recipe. Seider is here because the Devils need to create offence from the blueline and who better to ask in the league's leading point getter from the blueline.
Key Matchup : Devils defence vs. the Scotsman Forwards - LIke I said before the Scotsman offence is average. The Devils defence was not great, giving up 4 goals a game.That will need to be tightened up to keep this series
Prediction : South Esk in 6 (over under 2.5 injures for Dorchester)
Bathurst Mighty Ducks (2) vs. Albert County Renegade (3)
This could be the most unpredictable series. Does MacDavid go full John Wick on the Ducks. Or do the Ducks with Blackwood smother the Renegade. It is the classic matchup of better forwards on one side vs better goaltending . By default I cheer for the Renegade because it’s Eichel and Gibson vs. Bathurst.
Most Important Player : Steve Yzerman - Simple formula. When the other team have better offensive players than your team than the best offensive player on this team gets the spotlight. Kirby Dach will have his hand full mainly playing defence but that’s where Yzerman can make the difference. Along with Robertson and Pelletier their job is cause major problems for Albert County’s Defence
Prediction : Ducks in 7 after some shaky Blackwood games
Saint John Kings (1) vs. Miramichi Moose (4)
I mean there’s always a chance. It is by all definitions Moose season.
I mean Saint John does this thing where they look like world beaters than it just happens for no reason. Most of the time there’s no hidden stat that comes out of nowhere or the opposing goalie turns into heyday Martin Brodeur and just shuts the offence down.
I mean they were the best team ever. It couldn't happen, could it??????
Most important Player - The Sedin Sisters - Now here my logic here. They were both almost a point per game player this season and Seth Jarvis scored more goals than any other year in the league. The problem is this line was a majority in the - for +-, That will have to clean up the Moose to have a chance against this stacked roster.
Most Important Matchup - Saint John Forwards vs Moose Defence - The Kings have 3 formidable lines of 80 rated forwards except one 79 that will rerate into one. With that kind of onslaught it will put pressure on any team's defence core. Word out of Miramichi is some reinforcements will be called up from Harcourt to help but based on the regular season , Good Luck
Prediction : Kings in 6
Cains River Blues (2) vs. Moncton Melons (3)
With roster match up’s in the first round this could be the closest match up’s. Both teams have dynamic centers in their prime (Lundestrom and Hischer) and game breaking younger Left wings that can win a series by themselves (Hughes and Zary). I like the Moncton RW more but the Cains win the Defense with depth over the Melons. In net on paper Blackwood looks better than Veini hopeful he put his days of being inconsistent in Riverview behind him.
Very very close
Most Important Player - Jack Hughes - in the last two years he set league records for points. This season he moved to the left wing to accommodate Lundestrom. What resulted was a 31 point reduction from last year. For the Melons to have any chance he will need to revert to the league menace he was the last few years. Maybe reforming the line with Tomisino and Kakko should happen with Lundestorm trying it out with Turcotte and Cozens.
Most Important Matchup - Moncton Forwards vs. the Cains Defense - Surprisingly after having one of most potent offenses the last couple of years the Melons took it on the chin this year. Second Last offence in the league against the 3rd best defensive team in the league is a huge mismatch on paper. Unless Blackwood starts seeing ghosts this could be over fast unless the Melons return to form.
Prediction : Cains in 5
James Ashton9/28/2025
